The war involving Iran is now raising alarm far beyond the battlefield, with one of the world’s top fertiliser producers warning that disrupted supplies could leave up to 10 billion meals a week unproduced around the globe.
Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara, said the fighting in the Gulf and the blockage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are putting serious pressure on fertiliser supply chains and, in turn, threatening global food production. His warning points to a growing fear that the conflict could spark a wider crisis in agriculture, food affordability and hunger, especially in poorer parts of the world.
According to Holsether, around half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser are currently not being produced because of the disruption linked to the conflict. He said that shortfall could have major consequences for crop output in the months ahead, especially as planting seasons are now under way in several key regions.
The concern is not only about current supply. It is also about what happens later, when farmers harvest less than expected because they were unable to access enough fertiliser at the right time.
Lower Fertiliser Use Could Severely Reduce Crop Yields
Holsether said that for some crops, failing to apply nitrogen fertiliser could cut yields by as much as 50 percent in the first season alone. That makes the current disruption especially serious, because missed planting inputs cannot easily be recovered once the growing cycle is under way.
The fertiliser trade is highly global, with raw materials and finished products moving across continents. But the places expected to feel the impact first are Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, where many countries are heavily dependent on imported fertiliser.
Holsether warned that the consequences could be even more severe in places already dealing with under-fertilisation. In several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, for example, crop yields are already lower than they could be because of limited access to fertiliser. Further shortages there could lead to significant declines in output.
The effect may take time to become fully visible, but food systems are already being placed under strain. In the United Kingdom, planting is at its seasonal peak, while in much of Asia farmers are just beginning. That means the true damage to harvests may not become clear until later in the year.
Asia and Poorer Nations Face Greater Risk
Experts say some countries may still have enough fertiliser for the immediate planting season, but that cushion may not last if the conflict drags on. Professor Paul Teng, a food security specialist in Singapore, said that if the crisis continues, crops such as rice could start to feel the impact in the coming months.
This delay is what makes the situation particularly dangerous. Food prices may not rise instantly because the real shock will come when expected harvests turn out smaller than planned, or fail to materialise at all.
Holsether said the poorest countries are most exposed because they have the least ability to absorb rising prices or compete for limited supply. In richer economies, higher food costs may be painful, but governments and consumers often still have more purchasing power. In poorer nations, the same disruption can quickly turn into scarcity and hunger.
That gap, he warned, could turn into a bidding war for food in which wealthy countries outbid poorer ones, leaving vulnerable populations to pay the highest price.
Farmers Face Mounting Costs on All Sides
The pressure is not limited to fertiliser alone. Holsether said farmers around the world are already facing a difficult mix of rising costs, including higher energy bills, more expensive diesel for tractors and growing prices for other farming inputs.
At the same time, he said the prices farmers receive for their crops have not yet risen enough to cover those extra expenses. That imbalance is putting producers in an increasingly difficult position, as they try to keep planting and producing while margins shrink.
For many, the problem is becoming a chain reaction. Higher transport and energy costs push up fertiliser prices, reduced fertiliser use weakens yields, weaker yields reduce available food supply, and lower supply then drives up food prices for consumers.
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Sends Shock Through Global Markets
The Strait of Hormuz is central to the crisis because such a large share of the world’s fertiliser and fertiliser ingredients normally passes through it. According to the United Nations, about one-third of global fertiliser trade, including urea, potash, ammonia and phosphates, usually moves through the waterway.
Since the start of the US and Israeli war on Iran, fertiliser prices have surged by 80 percent. That sharp rise reflects just how sensitive agricultural markets are to disruption in the Gulf.
In the UK, the Food and Drink Federation has forecast that food inflation could reach 10 percent by December. The Bank of England has also warned that food price inflation could rise to 4.6 percent in September and may climb even higher later in the year.
Those figures suggest that even countries unlikely to face outright shortages will still feel the cost of the crisis in supermarkets and household budgets.
Hunger Risks Could Rise Sharply if Conflict Continues
The wider humanitarian warning is even more serious. The UN World Food Programme estimates that the combined effects of the Middle East conflict could push 45 million more people into acute hunger in 2026.
In Asia and the Pacific, food insecurity is expected to rise by 24 percent, the largest relative increase of any region. That projection highlights how a war centred in one part of the world can still spread hardship far beyond its immediate borders.
Holsether’s warning is therefore not just about markets or trade flows. It is about the real-world consequences of disrupted fertiliser supply on farmers, harvests and families. If the war continues to choke key shipping routes and keep costs elevated, the impact may be measured not only in lost production, but in missed meals for millions of people already living close to the edge.